AI fears abound

BY Richard Summerfield

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning have the potential to revolutionise many aspects of our professional and personal lives. In the decades to come, the potential benefits to be gained from embracing technology solutions will be remarkable. That said, the negative impact of AI and machine learning is widely debated, and it may have unintended consequences.

The risk of immoral, criminal or malicious utilisation of AI by rogue states, criminals and terrorists will grow exponentially in the coming years, according to 'The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation' report. The report is authored by 26 experts in AI, cyber security and robotics from universities including Cambridge, Oxford, Yale, Stanford and non-governmental organisations, such as OpenAI, the Center for a New American Security and the Electronic Frontier Foundation.

Yet despite the potential risks posed by malicious actors, many institutions are wholly unprepared. For the authors, over the course of the next decade, the cyber security landscape will continue to change and the increased use of AI systems will lower the cost of a cyber attack, meaning that the number of malicious actors and the frequency of their attacks will likely increase.

“We live in a world that could become fraught with day-to-day hazards from the misuse of AI and we need to take ownership of the problems – because the risks are real. There are choices that we need to make now, and our report is a call-to-action for governments, institutions, and individuals across the globe,” says Dr Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, executive director of Cambridge University’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk and a co-author of the report.

In response to the evolving threat of cyber crime and the potential misappropriation of AI, the report sets forth four recommendations. First, policymakers should work with researchers to investigate, prevent and mitigate potential malicious uses of AI. Second, researchers and engineers in AI should take the dual-use nature of their work seriously, allowing misuse-related considerations to influence research priorities and norms. Third, organisations should identify best practices where possible in research areas with more mature methods for addressing dual-use concerns, such as computer security, and imported where applicable to the case of AI. Finally, companies should actively seek to expand the range of stakeholders and domain experts involved in discussions of these challenges.

Report: The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation

Rise of the robots

BY Richard Summerfield

Automation is coming. Recent reports have suggested that millions of people around the world will be impacted by the wave of automation and other new technologies which are currently emerging.

A new report from PwC – 'Will robots really steal our jobs?' – suggests that while the financial services industry in particular could be vulnerable to automation in the short term, a variety of industries, including those in the transport space, are much more vulnerable in the longer term in the UK. Less well educated workers, too, will be increasingly susceptible to replacement. Female workers are also more likely to be replaced than their male counterparts.

PwC has identified three distinct waves of automation which will impact the global economy up to 2030: the algorithm wave, the augmentation wave and the autonomy wave.

The algorithm wave is already underway and will last until the early 2020s. It involves automating structured data analysis and simple digital tasks, such as credit scoring. This wave could see just 2-3 percent of UK employees affected – 4 percent of women and 1 percent of men.

The augmentation wave, which centres on the automation of repeatable tasks and exchanging information, as well as further development of aerial drones, robots in warehouses and semi-autonomous vehicles, could impact 20 percent of UK jobs – 23 percent of women and 17 percent of men. This wave will last until the late 2020s.

The third wave, the autonomy wave, suggests that AI will have developed to the point that it will be able to analyse data from multiple sources, make decisions and take physical actions with little or no human input. This wave will last until the mid 2030s and could affect 30 percent of the workforce – 26 percent of women and 34 percent of men.

Euan Cameron, UK Artificial Intelligence leader at PwC, said: “Our research shows that the impact from automation and AI will be felt in waves, with more routine and data tasks hit first. But just because businesses and people aren’t feeling the impacts right now, there is no excuse not to start planning for the future. AI technology is getting more sophisticated every day and businesses need to understand how, where and when their people are likely to be affected in the future. Those that understand the risks and opportunities can start upskilling their people and adapting their businesses, rather than simply reacting when it’s too late.”

Automation is expected to be a boon for the economy, however. PwC believes it could contribute as much as 10 percent to UK GDP and 14 percent to global GDP by 2030.

Report: Will robots really steal our jobs?

AI to drive GDP growth – PwC

BY Richard Summerfield

Across a wide spectrum of industries there is burgeoning excitement around the implementation and applications of artificial intelligence (AI). While there will be myriad challenges with properly leveraging AI, a new report from PwC suggests that global GDP could be up to 14 percent higher in 2030 as a result of AI – the equivalent of adding an additional $15.7 trillion to the global economy.

Though AI is, in some respects, a mystery for many organisations, in terms of how it will impact them and alter their business models, it is important for companies to embrace AI where possible. AI can enhance many different areas of organisations’ businesses, according to PwC, which, in turn, will drive economic gains.

Productivity will be boosted by companies automating processes using robots and autonomous vehicles. Companies will also be able to augment their existing labour forces by installing AI technologies, including assisted and augmented intelligence. Consumer demand will also be altered by AI. Personalised and higher-quality AI-enhanced products and services will drive consumer activity.

The report notes that all regions of the global economy will experience benefits from AI, including North America, China, Europe and developed Asia. China will see GDP grow by 26 percent to 2030, and North America will receive a 14.5 percent boost. However, emerging markets will see more modest growth in the coming years, at less than 6 percent of GDP, due to lower AI adoption rates forecast for Latin America and Africa.

According to the report: “The ultimate commercial potential of AI is doing things that have never been done before, rather than simply automating or accelerating existing capabilities. Some of the strategic options that emerge won’t match past experience or gut feelings. As a business leader, you may therefore have to take a leap of faith. The prize is being far more capable, in a far more relevant way, than your business could ever be without the infinite possibilities of AI.”

On a sectoral basis, the industries most likely to benefit from the emergence of AI will be retail, financial services and healthcare, thanks to improvements in productivity, product value and consumption.

Report: PwC’s Global Artificial Intelligence Study: Exploiting the AI Revolution

ROI boosted by mature ethics & compliance programmes, new survey finds

BY Fraser Tennant

Companies with mature or advanced ethics & compliance training programmes achieve greater return on investment (ROI) as well as significant risk mitigation and culture change, according to a new survey by NAVEX Global.

In its ‘2017 Ethics & Compliance Training Benchmark Report’, NAVEX reveals that 48 percent of the 900 respondents surveyed (over half of whom were senior managers or directors) said their training programmes were maturing – meaning they have a basic plan for the year that covers risk and role-based topic assignments.

A further 10 percent of respondents said their programmes were advanced – meaning they have a sophisticated multiyear training plan that covers a variety of topics assigned to specific audiences based on need and risk profile that includes live and e-learning, short-form and long-form courses and a variety of engaging formats.

The report also found that larger companies were more likely to have mature or advanced programmes.

“More than half of our respondents classified their training programmes as at least mature and said they are better able to determine and then show the linkage between programme maturity and training objectives to executives,” said Ingrid Fredeen, NAVEX Global's vice president of online learning content and the author of the report. “Being able to sharpen the business case for training is important for compliance programmes hoping to secure more funding at this critical time, when a scandal or cyber attack can have swift and sweeping negative effects on an organisation and its brand.”

Additional report findings include: (i) companies define a culture of ethics and respect in various ways, with the two most common definitions highlighting a culture that creates a workplace that encourages people to speak openly and aligns with regulatory requirements; (ii) just 41 percent of respondents said they provide training on cyber security; and (iii) just 43 percent provide training on speaking up and reporting/anti-retaliation.

However, echoing previous year’s results, training at the highest levels continues to be a potential problem spot, with 36 percent of respondents stating their companies do not provide ethics and compliance training to their boards. A further 21 percent said they did not know whether they provided training.

Ms Freeden concluded: “People are thinking differently about the need for training programmes. Some companies could be wondering what is under a rock today that could go public tomorrow.”

Report: 2017 Ethics & Compliance Training Benchmark Report

Activism the new normal – report

BY Richard Summerfield

Shareholder activism is increasingly widespread. No longer just a niche tactic employed by a small number of hedge funds, it is becoming more mainstream, according to a new report from J.P. Morgan Chase on the 2017 proxy season.

The report, ‘The 2017 Proxy Season – globalization and a new normal for shareholder activism’, notes that while the 2017 proxy season began slowly, it ended with a number of high-profile, mega-cap campaign announcements. Yet, surprisingly, the number of activist campaigns recorded during the proxy season was flat. According to the report, this paucity of activity is not indicative of a decline in the popularity of activism but rather demonstrates activism's metamorphosis into a more commonly accepted practice.

“Investors around the globe continue to use activist tactics to bring about change,” the report notes. “As a result, shareholder activism has become an accepted strategy across global markets, even in regions once believed to be hostile or structurally difficult for campaigns. After several years of growth, global activist campaign volume dipped by 6 percent in 2017, with nearly every region experiencing a modest decline in new campaigns, year-over-year. The US market, in particular, seemed to settle into a ‘new normal’ of campaign volume, accounting for 54 percent of global volume, as the strategy gains footing in international markets.”

Globally, there were 606 activist campaigns in the year to 30 June. The US saw the lion’s share of activity, with 327 campaigns. Of those, 68 proxy contests were launched during the 2017 season, 54 of which had been completed by 30 June.

Nineteen percent of campaigns in the US were launched by first time activists and nearly two-thirds of all 2017 US campaigns targeted companies with market caps below $500m. Smaller funds were most active during the 2017 proxy season, focusing on smaller-cap companies.

The report also claimed that institutional investors are increasingly turning to activism. As activism has matured as a strategy, traditional long-only funds have begun to embrace it. Actively managed funds displayed a willingness to publicly support activist campaigns and also partnered with activists to target one of their portfolio companies.

M&A focused activism has also become prevalent in recent years. Five hundred M&A-related campaign demands were made by activists globally during the 2016 and 2017 proxy seasons, which accounted for approximately 75 percent of total value demands for that period.

Report: The 2017 Proxy Season – globalization and a new normal for shareholder activism