Optimism has fallen: new survey highlights sharp slump in financial services sentiment

BY Fraser Tennant

Optimism in the financial services sector has slumped alarmingly in the past five years, with firms citing market instability, sector competition and macroeconomic uncertainty as their top three challenges, according to the new CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey published this week.

The survey, a quarterly analysis of 104 financial services firms, reveals that banking and investment management respondents in particular had seen the sharpest slump in sentiment, while optimism across building societies and in the insurance sector was found to be broadly flat.

Drilling down, the survey shows that optimism in the financial services sector has fallen at its fastest pace for over four years, with 14 percent of firms more optimistic, but 35 percent less so, giving a balance of minus 21 percent. In comparison, the balance was 24 percent in December 2011.

“Concerns over China and a volatile start to the year for markets, alongside uncertainty about a possible Brexit, have created a perfect storm to dampen optimism in financial services,” said Rain Newton-Smith, the director for economics at the CBI. “As we know from talking to CBI members, now that the referendum date has been set some investment decisions have been put on hold by some firms, though this is not widespread.

“Investment intentions for IT remain resilient, but spending plans are being scaled back in other areas. Investments are increasingly motivated by the need to promote efficiency, while uncertainty about demand appears to be holding additional investment spending back.”

However, despite the findings, the survey does indicate that business volumes have continued to expand at a solid pace, and profitability has improved, albeit at the slowest pace for two years. Overall, business volumes rose at a decent pace, with 44 percent of firms stating that volumes were up, 18 percent saying they were down, giving a balance of +26 percent.

The survey also notes an increase in staffing levels in financial services during the last quarter, though this uptick is expected to flatline in the next three months, with insurance and building society sector staff increases being offset by losses within the banking fraternity.

“The lack of opportunities to generate revenue has shifted the focus of financial services companies to how they make their business models more efficient or effective - no easy task in such an unpredictable climate,” said Kevin Burrowes, UK financial services leader at PwC. “Despite the pessimistic mood in the sector, it is very encouraging to see that many financial services organisations are planning to up their game around talent attraction and diversity."

News: ‘Perfect storm’ of events dampens optimism among financial services firms

Landmark year in global renewable energy investment

BY Richard Summerfield

Global investment in renewable energy reached record levels in 2015, according to a new report from the United Nations.

Renewable energy investment climbed to $286bn last year, a 3 percent increase on the previous record set in 2011, and more than double the $130bn invested in coal and gas power stations over the same period.

The report – Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016 – is the tenth edition of the UN Environment Program’s annual publication and has been launched by the Frankfurt School-UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy Finance and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

“Global investment in renewables capacity hit a new record in 2015, far outpacing that in fossil fuel generating capacity despite falling oil, gas and coal prices,” said Michael Liebreich, chairman of the advisory board at BNEF. “It has broadened out to a wider and wider array of developing countries, helped by sharply reduced costs and by the benefits of local power production over reliance on imported commodities.”

One of the most notable features of the of the UN backed report is that while global investment in solar, wind and other renewable sources of energy has climbed considerably, for the first time ever the developing world accounted for the majority of investments. According to UNEP’s data, renewable investment in developing countries climbed 19 percent to $156bn in 2015, $103bn of which was invested in China alone. “Renewables are becoming ever more central to our low-carbon lifestyles, and the record-setting investments in 2015 are further proof of this trend,” said UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner.

However, the growth in developing economy investment contrasts with a fall in similar investment in the developed world. Though US investments rose 19 percent to $44bn, investments in developed countries fell 8 percent to $130bn. Investment in Europe was down 21 percent, from $62bn in 2014 to $48.8bn in 2015, the continent’s lowest figure for nine years, despite record investments in offshore wind projects. Japanese investment in renewable energy was much the same as the previous year, at $36.2bn.

There has been good progress made in renewable energy investment and it is clear that some structural changes to the energy space are underway; yet there is still a great deal of work to be done. Renewables still only accounted for one-tenth of global power generation, the majority of which comes from coal and natural gas.

Report: Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016

P&U sector rethinks business models to tackle cyber security challenges

BY Fraser Tennant

Understanding the cyber security challenges facing the power and utilities (P&U) sector and improving how businesses respond to them is the overarching theme of a new EY report published this week.

In EY’s ‘Creating trust in the digital world’ global information survey 2015, 1755 respondents from global P&U organisations provide insight into the most important cyber security issues facing the sector today – a sector currently undergoing major transformation due to the introduction of smart meters and data networks across the digital energy value chain.

Moreover, the onset of this digital energy value chain, what EY describes as the “attack surface” of P&U organisations, is expanding considerably, as is the sophistication and persistence of the cyber attacks being launched by cyber criminals.

Highlighting the main concerns of the P&U sector, the EY report reveals that 19 percent of P&U responders admit that they do not have an information security strategy; 46 percent point to a lack of executive awareness or support as a major obstacle to dealing with threats to cyber security; and 55 percent confirm that their organisation does not have a dedicated security operations centre (SOC).

In terms of how P&U organisations should manage a cyber attack, the report recommends that they first identify their key risk management principles and apply them to the cyber risk issue. Fundamentally, this means knowing their critical assets; making cyber risk more tangible; aligning cyber risk with existing risk frameworks; making cyber risk relevant to the business; and embedding risk appetite within investment decisions.   

Furthermore, says EY, organisations should adopt a three-stage improvement process: (i) ‘Activate’ (establishing and improving cyber security foundations); (ii) ‘Adapt’ (adapting cyber security to changing requirements); and (iii) ‘Anticipate’ (predicting what is coming to be better prepared).

“P&U companies are rethinking their business models by being more innovative and offering a richer customer and employee experience through a variety of channels”, states the report. “However, there are significant cyber threats, and organisations need to recognise and understand the current challenges to get ahead of the cyber criminals.”

Although the EY report makes it clear that the P&U organisations are indeed making significant progress as far as tightening up their cyber security, the overriding message is that there remains considerable room for improvement across the sector.

Report: Global information survey 2015: creating trust in the digital world

Global investment in FinTech to top $150bn within 5 years claims new report

BY Fraser Tennant

Global investment in FinTech is set to top $150bn over the next five years, putting one in four financial services (FS) companies potentially at risk, according to a report published this week by PwC.

The report, ‘Blurred Lines: How FinTech is shaping Financial Services’, is based on a survey of 544 respondents across 46 countries and examines the development of new financial services sector technologies and their potential impact on the FS market.

Pointedly, 83 percent of survey respondents said they felt at risk of losing some of their business to standalone FinTech firms, with 67 percent citing pressure on margins as being the top threat to business, followed by loss of market share (59 percent).

In terms of the relationship between FS firms and FinTech companies, while the report notes that joint partnerships are “the most common way” in which collaboration takes place, it also makes clear that there are particular challenges to overcome. Chief among these are IT security, regulatory uncertainty and differences in business models.

“Given how fast technology is changing and lines are blurring, no business can afford to rest on its laurels,” said Steve Davies, EMEA FinTech leader at PwC. “As competition hots up, the result will be a reduction in margins and a loss of market share for traditional financial institutions. Those who do not act now are at risk of falling behind as FinTech changes the industry from the outside. Incumbents cannot afford to ignore this trend. Nevertheless, our survey shows that 25 percent of firms currently have no interaction at all with FinTech companies.”

The PwC report also identifies the distributed ledger technology Blockchain as being the next evolution in the FinTech story, with huge cost savings and improvements in transparency being real possibilities – a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity”, according to Mr Davies. Testament to this belief is PwC’s identification of more than 700 companies that have recently entered this space.

Mr Davies concluded: “In the past, financial services companies have provided invaluable services to clients by acting as intermediaries in the system. Their functions are now increasingly being usurped by technology-driven business models. Before these traditional intermediary roles become obsolete, firms need to wake up to the once in a generation opportunity provided by this changing financial landscape.”

Report: Blurred Lines: How FinTech is shaping Financial Services

Energy faces uncertain future as megatrends transform oil & gas sector

BY Fraser Tennant

Industry megatrends, such as historically low commodity prices, are transforming the oil & gas sector with a challenging future the likely outcome, according to PwC’s New Energy Futures report published this week.

Recognising the uncertainty clouding the sector’s future, the report proposes a framework which evaluates four potential future scenarios that could help companies successfully navigate an increasingly complex and volatile global market over the next 5 to 15 years.

The four are: (i)  the oil and gas sector evolves along current lines with limited government intervention; (ii) demand from energy consumers (retail & commercial) for cleaner energy drives the transition towards a low carbon; (iii) governments drive increased energy efficiency, expansion of renewable energy demand and accelerated development of disruptive technologies; and (iv) supply constraints are triggered through direct government action, such as implementing carbon legislation or withholding licences (e.g,. Shale, Arctic) or geopolitical disruption.

“Global demand for affordable, reliable energy will continue to grow for the foreseeable future, but there is a new longer-term backdrop, as the world transitions to a low carbon system,” said Viren Doshi, PwC’s Strategy& oil and gas leader. “Momentum to replace fossil fuels with cleaner energy sources is building, and oil and gas companies need to consider their futures in this context."

The report also recommends that companies across the oil & gas chain: (i) have a clear strategy and alignment with portfolio, decision making processes and capabilities; (ii) have an ability to be agile and resilient in uncertain times; (iii) have an innovative response to disruptive change using existing assets as well as technology, knowledge and capabilities; (iv) have a readiness to form alliances and collaborate across the supply chain; and (v) safeguard the social licence to operate by sustaining the trust and support of investors and wider stakeholders through increased transparency.

Jan-Willem Velthuijsen, PwC’s chief economist in Europe, believes that the recommendations will allow companies to “reassess their current strategy and plans, with implications for the operating model, partnering strategy, resourcing and technical capabilities and other areas".

Despite all the uncertainty and prediction of a challenging future, Mr Doshi is in no doubt as to oil and gas sector’s ability to innovate and adapt to a rapidly changing world: “Time and again, successful operators have demonstrated the ability to respond to challenges by taking a long term view, innovating, adapting and gauging major trends as they define medium-long term investment plans.

“We are convinced that they can do so again."