Sector Analysis

PwC calls for change

BY Richard Summerfield

The oil & gas industry has endured a turbulent and troubled couple of years and, according to a new report from PwC, there may be more pain on the way unless radical and urgent changes are made within the industry, most notably in the North Sea basin.

PwC’s report 'A Sea Change: The future of the North Sea Oil & Gas' has called on those companies operating in the North Sea to implement a comprehensive programme of reform in the basin in order to meet short term energy needs. For the industry to undergo the necessary changes, however, it will require both government intervention as well as the input of industry organisations.

Given the deficiencies displayed by the industry it is unsurprising that there is a dearth of optimism permeating the oil & gas space; the report found that less than three in five senior executives interviewed by PwC were positive about the industry's future. A fifth of all respondents were pessimistic about the future.

Regardless of the gloomy outlook for the industry, there is a willingness within the space to change, according to Alison Baker, PwC’s UK and EMEA oil and gas leader. When interviewing respondents, PwC “picked up a real sense of urgency to create one last cycle of success that will retain and generate jobs, stimulate growth and ensure security of energy supply. But this was matched by a level of frustration at the fundamental issues that need tackling to avert the risk of rapid and premature decline. Part of the solution is for government agendas across Treasury, DECC and the OGA to be much better aligned to the needs of the whole industry, from super majors to smaller oil field services firms. The majority of respondents also want government to take a lesson from Norway and Saudi Arabia and be bold in setting out their blueprint for the future. This must incorporate onshore activity as well as defining how the North Sea basin will evolve in the short to medium term and, crucially, how the end game - and subsequent transition to a low carbon landscape – will be managed.”

One of the key measures proposed by PwC is the creation of a “super joint venture” comprised of a number of offshore operators which would not only share the risk of operating in the space. They would also split the returns. By combining their efforts under one joint venture banner, it would be easier for organisations to create greater cost efficiencies; indeed, a joint venture approach could see costs fall by around 15 percent, according to PwC’s projections. By pooling their efforts, they would also be in a better position to negotiate with suppliers in the long-term.

Such is the state of the sector, industry leaders have also proposed the transfer of certain assets, including pipeline infrastructure to a third-party company to ensure cooperation. The nationalisation of certain assets has also been mooted.

Report: A Sea Change: The future of the North Sea Oil & Gas

World’s top 40 mining companies hit by $27bn collective net loss

BY Fraser Tennant

The mining sector experienced a challenging 2015 with its 40 largest companies hit by a collective net loss of US $27bn, according to a PwC report published this week.

In ‘Mine 2016: Slower, lower, weaker... but not defeated’ – the 13th in a series of PwC reports which analyse financial performance and global trends – it is also revealed that market capitalisation fell by 37 percent (in a number of cases below net book value), a development which PwC says "effectively wipes out all the gains made during the commodity super cycle".

The aggregated results found in the PwC report were sourced from the latest publicly available information, primarily annual reports, with all figures reported in US dollars.

“Last year was undoubtedly challenging for the mining sector,” said Jason Burkitt, PwC’s UK mining leader. “A 25 percent year-on-year decline in commodity prices meant mining companies had to ratchet up their productivity efforts, while some found themselves in a fight for survival, with asset disposals and closures to follow.

“We’re also seeing shareholders persist with a short term focus, impacting the capital available for investment and, as a result, constraining options for growth. But this is a hardy industry, and while miners may be down now they are certainly not out.”

The PwC report also found that: (i) investors punished the top 40 mining companies for poor investment and capital management decisions and, in some cases, for squandering the benefits of the boom; (ii) concerns over the 'spot mentality' from shareholders focused on fluctuating commodities prices and short term returns rather than the long term investment horizon required in mining; and (iii) there was a focus in 2015 on maximising value from shedding assets as well as mothballing marginal projects or curtailing capacity.  

Although Mr Burkitt concedes that the mining sector will continue to face significant market challenges and constraints, he is also confident that there is a still a long-term positive outlook. “In the first five months of the year, we’ve been encouraged by some recoveries in market capitalisations and commodity prices – but with high volatility still in play, hopes of a sustained rebound are tempered.

“Many of the top 40 mining companies appreciate what is required for the marathon of mining and have their eyes firmly fixed on the long term rewards," he concluded.

The PwC analysis of the mining sector was published to coincide with this week’s London School of Mines conference on 8 June.

Report: Mine 2016 Slower, lower, weaker... but not defeated - review of global trends in the mining industry

Chinese investors at home in US

BY Richard Summerfield

The Chinese economy has been experiencing a well documented slowdown and re-tooling. As a result, many Chinese businesses have begun to look overseas for their next growth opportunity.

Chinese foreign direct investment has climbed considerably, with investment into the US skyrocketing,  according to a new report from the Rosen Consulting Group and the Asia Society, titled 'Breaking Ground: Chinese Investment in US Real Estate'.

In 2014, Chinese outward FDI flows totalled $116bn, around $18.1bn of which entered the US market. A year later, Chinese outward FDI flows totalled $118bn, with $22.3bn flowing in to the US

The real estate market has been an increasingly attractive investment destination for Chinese businesses in recent years. In the US residential segment, Chinese acquirers spent around $93bn between 2010 and 2015. Accordingly, China has overtaken Canada as the lead foreign investor in the US residential space.

Much of the foreign capital has been concentrated in New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco, with the remaining volume spread widely across the rest of the country. The housing market in California and New York accounted for 35 percent and 7 percent of all transactions, respectively.

Furthermore, Chinese funded projects under construction or planned in the US totalled at least $15bn by the end of 2015. “What surprised me most is the speed of Chinese investment growth, but also the breadth of asset types and geographical locations,” says Arthur Margon, a partner at Rosen Consulting Group and lead author of the report.

Although the tightening of capital controls may impact upon Chinese acquisitions in the residential space in the short term, it is likely that Chinese investment in the US real estate space will continue to climb - particularly as there is an ever widening field of Chinese real estate investors, many of whom have yet to dip their toe in the American market.

Report: Breaking Ground: Chinese Investment in US Real Estate

Infrastructure investment boosts global economies claims new report

BY Fraser Tennant

A large-scale investment in infrastructure is the answer to the stumbling economic growth rates in many large economies, according to PwC’s new ‘Global Economy Watch’ report.

This stumbling growth or “sizable negative output gaps” identified by PwC provides a snapshot of the amount of spare capacity in an economy by estimating how close it operates to its potential level of output. Moreover, of the G7 group of countries, only the UK and Germany are anywhere near to closing the gap, while Italy is furthest adrift, reveals PwC.

“We don’t expect this to change soon, since our main scenario sees global growth of around 2.5 to 3 percent this year, the fifth year of below trend growth measured in market exchange rate terms," confirms Richard Boxshall, a senior economist at PwC. “The UK saw growth slow to a slightly-below-trend rate of 0.4 percent in the first three months of 2016, while the US grew at a lethargic rate of 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter.

The answer, claims PwC, is to boost growth rates by investing in infrastructure – a strategy that the professional services firm claims would boost aggregate demand through increased construction activity and employment in the short-term and increase the potential supply capacity of an economy in the long-term.

To this end, PwC has set out four key investment principles for policymakers to utilise when deciding where to invest: (i) ensure it meets a need, identifying current and future needs, supplementing the base case analysis with a range of scenarios including optimistic and pessimistic cases; (ii) ensure consistency with other objectives, including social and environmental as well as economic goals.; (iii) ensure the numbers add up, as governments with a relatively low net debt position and healthy public finances (e.g., Germany and Canada) can boost aggregate demand/long-term supply capacity via infrastructure-led programmes; and (iv) ensure it will benefit the wider economy, factoring in both the long-term effects as well as the direct and indirect impacts.

“This type of investment is once again being touted as the key to unlock our low growth environment – but the effectiveness of this policy will ultimately depend on how many shovel-ready projects in different economies meet the principles we’ve outlined," concludes Mr Boxshall.

PwC’s Global Economy Watch is a monthly publication which examines the trends and issues that are affecting the global economy, detailing the latest economic projections for the world’s leading economies.

Report: Global Economy Watch

Crude awakening: oil price falls following failure of OPEC talks

BY Fraser Tennant

The price of oil has fallen after a meeting of the world’s major oil producers – the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – ended in failure. 

The meeting, held in Doha, Qatar on 17 April with most (but not all) OPEC members present, had intended to sign a deal to cap oil output. However, it concluded with no agreement being made – an outcome which is being largely attributed to tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Prior to Doha, Saudi Arabia had demanded that Iran sign up to the deal to freeze oil productions, but Iran (a non-attendee) is unwilling to do so and has stated that it will continue to increase output following the lifting of a number of sanctions.    

In a statement, the Iranian government said that as it was “not going to sign anything” and was "not part of the decision to freeze output”, it had decided not to send a representative to the OPEC meeting.

“It doesn’t come as a huge surprise to me that the talks could not reach a conclusion, given Iran and Saudi Arabia’s previously stated positions, which they stuck to," said Clare Munro, a partner at Brodies LLP and head of the firm’s oil and gas team in Aberdeen, Scotland. “However, it does demonstrate the pressure on the various countries involved, which leads me to believe that at some point a deal will be achieved."

Just a few days prior to the aborted talks, Brent crude had climbed to a four-month high of just under $45 per barrel – an increase that reflected global market hopes that a deal to cap oil output would hold crude oil production at the January 2016 level and slow the oversupply.

Ms Munro continued: “Although the oil price did suffer a set-back, Brent remains above $40, which is better than where we have been for most of the year so far.”

Addressing the failure of the OPEC meeting, Dr Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada, Qatar’s minister of Energy and Industry, said his administration respected the Iranian position and that the freeze “could be more effective if major producers, be it from OPEC members like Iran and others, as well as non-OPEC members, are included".

Ultimately, the major oil producers concerned required “more time” to agree a deal, admitted Dr Al-Sada.  

News: Oil Plunges After Output Talks Fail Amid Saudi Demands Over Iran

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