BY Fraser Tennant
Following the recovery in the global M&A market in the second quarter of 2023, deal activity fell in the third quarter, according to a new PitchBook report published this week.
In its ‘Q3 2023 Global M&A Report’, PitchBook reveals that global M&A deal value nearly reached a 10-year low in Q3 2023, falling sequentially by 19.9 percent. The report also notes that deal value is down 22.5 percent year to date despite a negligible decline in deal count.
Moreover, sponsor share of M&A deal flow has contracted to 33.1 percent, 4.8 percentage points below its Q4 2021 peak, en route to a second year of decline after 10 consecutive years of expansion. In addition, dealmakers are biding their time with smaller deals until conditions improve for megadeals.
“Nearly two years after reaching its zenith in Q4 2021, the downturn in global M&A shows no signs of slowing and in fact accelerated in Q3 2023,” said Tim Clarke, lead analyst, private equity at PitchBook. “It was a quarter that began with a budding recovery in equity and debt underwriting and stabilisation following the bank mini-crisis. However, it ended with the threat of a US government shutdown and a less friendly interest rate outlook by central banks, which gave M&A dealmakers pause.”
However, several market conditions are pointing to a forthcoming recovery in the M&A market next year. Trillions of dollars in dry powder for private equity sponsors and cash piles kept on hand by corporations are positioned for new deals. In addition, lower private-market valuations may spur rich public strategic buyers to scoop up private targets.
“The preconditions for a rebound are there, starting with the global total of $1.4 trillion in unspent PE dry powder, just 9.7 percent shy of its all-time high,” continued Mr Clarke. “An even larger cash pile is on the books of corporations. In the US alone, cash holdings surpassed $4.1 trillion in Q2 2023, an all-time record, and the figure grows to $5.8 trillion when including reserves held overseas.
The report observes that while only a portion of this is earmarked for strategic investments and acquisitions, untapped borrowing capacity and stock value easily compensate for the rest.
For these reasons, we believe that the currently weak trend in M&A will give way to an eventual recovery,” concluded Mr Clarke. “Recent events have most likely pushed that recovery from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024, but somewhere around this two-year anniversary we expect the tide to turn.”
Report: Q3 2023 Global M&A Report