BY Richard Summerfield
Despite a challenging year marked by rising interest rates and slower growth, successful private equity firms (PE) are adapting to the changing environment, according to Dechert LLP and Mergermarket’s sixth annual Global Private Equity Outlook report.
According to the report, which is based on responses from senior executives within PE firms in North America, EMEA and APAC, 26 percent of respondents, the largest share, believe that interest rates will have the single biggest impact on the deal environment over the coming 12 months.
Also, in response to the US regional bank crisis of earlier this year, 35 percent of respondents intend to move more toward private credit providers. This shift has been visible across all parts of the world.
Ninety-two percent of general partners (GPs) say they are currently utilising earn-outs a strategy to manage the valuation gap that emerged last year in response to macro and market conditions.
Fifty-eight percent of respondents believe that the market conditions for exits will be either neutral or somewhat favourable over the coming year, suggesting GPs are confident in a recovery but remain realistic about the challenges ahead. However, this is a significant fall from 84 percent of respondents who shared that view a year ago.
Ninety-four percent of respondents are likely to consider pursuing take-privates at present, a marked difference from last year when less than 50 percent said they were likely to do so. Increased regulatory scrutiny is expected to have a negative impact on dealmaking over the next 12 months, however. Forty-six percent of respondents reported that they expect antitrust authorities to have a negative impact and 25 percent expect a significant negative impact on their dealmaking plans over the next 12 months.
“Despite a decline in fundraising and dealmaking coupled with debt becoming costlier and scarcer, private equity marches forward,” said Markus P. Bolsinger, co-head of Dechert’s global private equity practice. “The shift towards take-private transactions is an example of how they are not just surviving but thriving in the face of market volatility, finding value in public markets where others see uncertainty.
“Given the additional regulatory complexity and public scrutiny of these deals, active engagement of skilled professional advisers from the very start is a necessity, particularly in the US, where stockholder-plaintiffs have recently secured significant damages awards in the Delaware courts against acquirors in take-privates,” he added.
Going forward, the report suggests that GPs should build portfolio resilience, that parties on both sides of transactions need to think creatively to ensure success, that firms capitalise upon public markets and that GPs should use environmental, social and governance (ESG) as a lever to create value through new revenue, reduced costs, improved access to finance and higher employee engagement and productivity.